It’s Tuesday morning, and I’m waiting for the second train of the day, the one I caught yesterday. I slept a bit better last night than Sunday night. That’s not saying much, but beggars can’t be choosers, as the saying goes. It still feels a bit better, at least. You know you’re in some weirdness when four or five hours of heavily broken-up sleep feels fairly restful, and you don’t even really consider bothering to go and catch the 4:20 train.
It’s relatively cool here in south Florida, by which I mean the current temperature is 57 degrees* according to my weather app. This is, rather amusingly, lower than the app’s statement of what the low temperature overnight is supposed to have been. Anyone paying attention might be excused for feeling that the app, in contradicting itself so flagrantly, should not be considered reliable.
Of course, it’s obvious that the app, or service, or whatever it is, simply doesn’t bother to update its “printed” overnight low prediction just for local minutiae. It’s not meant to be too precise, and in any case, local temperatures can vary quite a bit. The predicted low was 60, so it’s only off by 3 degrees.
Those who have not been thoroughly enough educated might think this is a five percent error—small, but not negligible. That is not correct. Both Fahrenheit and Centigrade are relative temperature scales, based around the freezing and boiling points of water, which is a useful, but provincial, set of benchmarks.
No, to get the correct error estimate we must work with the absolute temperature scale, or Kelvin, which begins at “absolute zero” the coldest “possible” temperature and goes up to whatever the maximum possible temperature is**. So, the error in absolute degrees (which are the same size as degrees in Centigrade, by convention) would be 3 degrees times 5/9, or 15/9 degrees Kelvin.
Now, to get the predicted temperature in Kelvin, we first convert to Centigrade—by taking (60-32) x 5/9, or (28 x 5)/9, or 140/9, or about 15 and a half—then add 273 (which is what zero degrees Centigrade is in Kelvin, ignoring the digits after the decimal point). So, the predicted temperature, in Kelvin, was about 288 degrees. 15/9 is one and two thirds degrees, so 1.67 degrees (taking 3 significant figures). As a percentage of 288, that’s pretty tiny.
Here, I’m going to go to the calculator program on my laptop, and it gives me…roughly 0.58%. That’s just over half a percent error. Not too bad, when you think about it. How often are your own estimates that accurate? If you could pick stocks that well, you could rapidly become a billionaire, I would think.
Here’s a funny little aside: the southbound train just pulled in across the tracks, and I’ve apparently used the Wi-Fi on that specific train before, because my laptop just prompted me to sign in. The train is pulling away now, and it’s too late, but it must have a pretty good Wi-Fi signal.
Okay, on to other matters, none of which seem nearly as interesting to me.
I think I’m going to try to use the same person who helped my coworker (the one who had a stroke) get new health insurance at what appears to have been a very good rate to sign up for some for me. I don’t even want to try to use Medicaid or Obamacare if I can help it.
I don’t trust the human government, anymore—as Radiohead sang, “they don’t…they don’t work for us”. It’s not that I think the government overall is malicious or evil or whatnot. It’s just that everyone in it is very small and parochial, working for their own local self-interest under local pressures and incentives. It’s astonishing that they ever accomplish anything useful at all.
Ants and bees (and termites) do a much more impressive job when they build their hills and hives and mounds, but then again, they are individually less self-serving in many ways. That’s not to their particular credit—it’s the just way nature has shaped them for their lifestyle and reproductive strategies—but it’s true, nevertheless.
Human governments, meanwhile, are made up of individually motivated creatures whose reproductive processes (and thus their drives and fears) are not much different from any other mammals’, but who try to work in ultrasocial settings as if they were some close relatives of Hymenoptera. It’s a testament to the incredible power of language (particularly written language) that they accomplish anything at all.
When it has dealt with me specifically, “the” government has done far more harm than good, and most unjustly***. The less I have to do with any level of their power—I will not grant them the word “authority”—the more comfortable I will feel. I have a learned aversion and probably some form of complex trauma associated with such things.
I don’t see any reason to overcome that aversion, because I don’t see how it would make my life any better. It certainly would not make local or state or national governments any less likely to grind me—or anyone else who isn’t massively wealthy and unscrupulous, which probably includes you—into bone meal.
With that, I’ll start to wrap things up for today. It’s the fifth day of Hanukkah, so enjoy it. Also, there are only a lucky 13 days left until the annual celebration of Newton’s birthday (they also celebrate some other guy’s birth on that day as well, and though he seems to have been a good sort of guy overall, he really wasn’t born on anything like December 25th).
Christmas was, of course, grafted on to a pre-existing solstice festival, and why not? Heck, Newton’s birthday was only on December 25th according to the Julian calendar, so it’s at least a week or two out from the Gregorian “date of his birth”. I could figure out the correct Gregorian date, but I can’t be arsed. It’s a question with no gravity, no momentum, not even any real significant potential energy. One might say it is of infinitesimal importance.
Have a nice day.
*Fahrenheit, of course. If it were 57 degrees Centigrade, global warming would indeed have taken an abrupt turn for the very much worse, and we would all be in the express lane to extinction, unless it were a very transient phenomenon. And, of course, if it were 57 degrees Kelvin, we would all already be frozen to death quite nicely, since even the nitrogen in the atmosphere freezes below 63 Kelvin, and oxygen is a liquid below 90 K (both of these numbers are at “normal” pressures, which would not prevail in these circumstances). I don’t know quite what it would mean to be at a 57 degree angle outside—would that simply mean that everything in the universe had been rotated by slightly less than a sixth of a full circle? Given the rotational symmetry of the laws of physics, from which comes the conservation of angular momentum, I don’t think anyone would even notice. And, of course, the Earth rotates locally 360 degrees a day, by definition.
**If memory serves, it’s called the Planck temperature. Anyway, this would be the temperature at which each local point in spacetime would be so hot that the local energy would make a black hole, and in any case, the usual laws of physics would break down. However, of course, if that energy is uniformly spread out, as presumably it would have been in the very early universe, any local spacetime curvature might be entirely effaced, so there would be no such black holes, as all the universe would be full of such energy. I think inflationary cosmology would imply that there never really was an era of such intense local energy, unless that would be the “inflaton field” itself, but I may be misremembering this. Anyway, that’s getting well into speculative physics.
***I am, of course, inescapably biased in this assessment, and I honestly could in principle be convinced by argument and evidence that I am wrong. Nevertheless, I don’t think I’m incorrect in considering that statement to be accurate and true, with a fairly high credence—certainly well into the mid to high 90 percent range. In other words, if I considered about a hundred assessments in which I was comparably confident as I am to this one, I would expect to be wrong about only a handful of them.



